The Times, 1st December 2016
Under the terms of Article 50 the UK will leave the EU two years after the date Theresa May notifies the bloc of the government’s intention to quit.
If no deal governing the UK’s new relationship with the EU is struck in that time frame then there will be none except for the trading rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Few people on any side of the debate think that it will be easy to strike a comprehensive free trade deal within two years.
It is precisely this stark scenario that has led to calls, predominantly from those seeking a “soft Brexit”, for some kind of transitional deal that bridges the gap between the current deal (membership) and whatever future arrangement the UK and the EU strike.
Beyond that a transitional agreement could include any number of provisions. Some people, including Boris Johnson’s new European affairs adviser, David Frost, have suggested that Britain seeks temporary membership of the European Economic Area, like Norway.
A transitional phase would offer extra certainty to businesses, but there are several issues.
From the EU’s point of view there is precedent for transitional arrangements but only for countries on their way into the bloc, not as they shut the door behind them.
Hard Brexiteers fear that some sort of transitional arrangement would not deliver the kinds of immigration controls desired quickly enough.
They also worry whether a transitional deal could effectively become permanent, with the free trade talks lasting for decades.